Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Everybody's talking at me.

Everybody's talking at me.
I don't hear a word they're saying,
Only the echoes of my mind.
People stopping staring,
I can't see their faces,
Only the shadows of their eyes.

I'm going where the sun keeps shining
Thru' the pouring rain,
Going where the weather suits my clothes,
Backing off of the North East wind,
Sailing on summer breeze
And skipping over the ocean like a stone.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Conquering the World on a Budget

We have convinced ourselves that it is better to reduce our wants to the point where we can happily acquire everything we could possibly desire. I am becoming more convinced that if I have everything I want, I just don't want enough.

It is very easy to be satisfied on very little, all you need is food, shelter, and entertainment and you will be happy. I'm sorry to report that the more deeply I examine it, the less impressive I find a life of domestic idleness, particularly from a financial perspective.

I look at hobbies such as -
  • Archaeological Digs
  • Space Tourism
  • Motorcycle Adventure Racing
  • Piloting a plane across the mountains
  • Safaris through Africa
  • Expeditions to Antarctica
There are plenty of ways to spend less money on all of these hobbies, but not to the point where they can be reasonably considered frugal. The party line on the blogs would be to pitch a tent in your backyard, make bologna sandwiches, and enjoy a staycation. You can say that travel in general or adventure generically can be made cheap, which is true. I can hostel around the entire planet and barely spend peanut shells, but that is a tiny subset of what travel (let alone, living) is about; I would miss tons of potential experiences doing only that.

We view folks who need expensive things as gluttonous, self-indulgent, and weak in self-control; we have figured out how to be happy on just a little bit.

But either people who spend money on these things are wrong and are wasting their money, or we are wrong saying they are a waste of money. Few of use have ever experienced these so who are we to judge? Our budgets do not even stretch far enough to purchase the boots needed to get on the bike.

By creating a budget we are effectively drawing a line on how much we can do with our lives. I'm becoming less convinced this is how humans were designed to live. But on the other hand I do not want to do all of the work which would be required to support a more demanding lifestyle.

Saturday, August 22, 2009

Recent Market Gains

It seems a lot of people are now coming out of the wood work and proudly proclaiming how they were smart and bought into the stock market when the S&P 500 was at its bottom of 666.79, now it is over 1000, they gained 50% in a few months. Usually they quote whatever the DJIA numbers although I think S&P 500 is more representative of what people own, I don't think many people own DJIA funds. To some extent, this gloating seem hypocritical because it is mainly the same folks who advocate long-term investing (translation: short-term gains are irrelevant and not to be celebrated), and also some of the activities smell like market timing to me.

I have a few questions for these folks who bought in at 666.79:
  1. How did you know that 666.79 was the bottom? How did you know it wasn't going to go to 566.79, and how did you know that 766.79 was not going to be the low, or even that 1166.79 would be low. I seem to remember a lot of people saying sub-1000 was a once in a lifetime buying opportunity, but it did go much lower.
  2. Why were you sitting on so much cash at the time? Why wasn't it already in the market? Where did the money you invested come from?
  3. What do the recent gains mean for your long-term goals? Are you celebrating them?
I also put did put a lot of money into this period myself. My investments are largely emerging markets which have a slightly different dynamic than S&P 500 (they crashed harder, bottomed earlier, zoomed back faster, and seemed to have peaked earlier also). To answer my own questions:
  1. I didn't. It just coincided with the period when I was maxing my 401(k) which I was doing for no other reason besides I wanted to get it out of the way early in the year so I could use money later in the year to take vacation or spend on other things. I am dollar cost averaging so I bought at 666.79, but I bought a lot at 766.79 and even 1166.79 also.
  2. I wasn't. I never cashed out of the market and never shifted money between cash and stocks. All the money I put in was new money which I earned from my job.
  3. Nothing, which is why I'm trying not to get too excited about them. I am more paranoid than ever. I have been investing for 8 years so the amount of money I've put in this year is only a small portion of what I have in, the gains between March and August don't mean that much for my overall position. Anybody who has been in the market since before it started to tank one year ago is down, the only people who are up overall are market newcomers.
In other words, I guess what I'm saying is that I'm not that impressed with people who bought in at the bottom, and are now gloating. To the extent that I did, it was luck. For others who did either it was luck or really smart market timing. Others with very similar timing strategies but who were just slightly off didn't get the same gains. Probably they are being mostly quiet now, they don't want to admit they made mistakes, although their stories probably have more teachings than the success stories.

When I was first starting learning about stocks - during the dot-com bust of 2000, I didn't understand why stocks were falling so quickly. I thought people would want to buy them I asked my mentor why not. He told me, "Nobody wants to catch a falling knife". I didn't understand this at the time, but now one decade later I understand, it feels horrible to put money into the market and see your accounts fall by more than you put (like September/October of last year), and feels good to pump money in and watch it grow. I am sticking by my strategy of continuing to put money in, even though the stock market causes significant emotional turmoil for me personally.

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

My One Liter Life

As I dig into my minimalist life, I think I need the following possessions:
  • Passport
  • Passport Card
  • Yellow Fever Immunization Certificate
  • Driver's License
  • Birth Certificate
  • Credit Card, Debit Card, two ATM Cards
  • USB Flash Drive
  • A few thousand USA dollars in cash
  • Digital Camera
None of that is strictly necessary, and much of it is not even my property but owned by the USA State Department or the various banks, and could very easily be replaced. The USB flash drive is my life, contains all of my personal data, and scans of important documents (all two of them). I should keep a copy online. The camera is not needed but it is fun to take pictures, and it fits so why not. Within a couple of years hopefully I can have a computer, cell phone, and camera all in one device the same size.

I created a prototype and all of these things easily fit into a 1 Liter zipper bag. I don't have any USA Dollars so I substituted various India Rupees, China Remnibi, and Mexico pesos, and various other banknotes which I do have. I put 100 bills. The maximum you can legally take into/out of the USA and most other countries is USD$10,000. That is one hundred $100 bills. If you use €500 Euro notes you only need 15 bills.

Ironically, most of this stuff is among the oldest and grossest stuff I own. My passport, issued in 2003, is very musty and smelly, and I believe the oldest thing I own, and also the only book which I own. And the cash is just truly disgusting. I hate my passport, and I think the Passport Card is the future of travel, but currently the only place it is recognized is USA/Mexico/Canada land border crossings. Of course I believe electronic cash is the future although that is not currently feasible in third world countries.

Things like clothes and personal toiletries are cheap and can be purchased anywhere, they are not worth weighing me down if I can only bring 1 Liter. I can rent time on a computer at an internet cafe anywhere in the world. This would be practical if I had to evacuate due to local disaster, or if I wanted to completely reset my life. If I had 5 liters, I would also have a couple external hard drives (mainly music & video). I have a few terabytes of data, it worries me how to transport this, right now that much data requires a lot of space.

If I had a carryon (the limit is currently around 45 liters) I would also take some of my favorite clothes and powerful laptop. I thought it was also interesting to figure the volume of my current dwelling (around 180,000 liters) and a 2,200 square foot McMansion (around 600,000 liters). And I'm about 80 liters.

I don't own many sentimental items. I have a shirt from a night club, with my name embroidered, which the owners of the place who were my friends made for me, two weeks before they were assassinated outside their home. However, I have never actually worn it, and I cannot really envision any situation where I would. I look at it, and I could easily have it remade if I needed to. It's just stuff.

Monday, August 17, 2009

Experiences: The New Status Symbol

End of Materialistic Status
The material universe described in personal finance blogs is completely foreign to me, the world of being surrounded by buying bigger and better things essentially has never existed in my life. Maybe this used to be done in the USA East Coast or the USA West Coast back in the 1980's, but I have never been exposed to it. In my universe, corporate executives drive 20 year-old pickups, and I cannot recall a time in my life where I ever felt peer pressure to purchase a material thing, or envy because somebody else had something nicer.

The tide has turned, 10 years it was possible to get into debt buying things, but since then China has joined the World Trade Organization, slashing the price of everything manufactured, everything went online, it is much harder to get into debt buying things now than it was 10 years ago because everything is much cheaper. Having a bunch of stuff is no longer a status symbol, people now know that things are just cheap junk imported from somewhere, and it is no longer meaningful to load up on it. I cannot really see anybody impressing anybody today in 2009 when a thing, those days are over.

But people still need to show the world they have greater means, so how will they do it?
Now you have a whole new generation of people getting into debt buying experiences. People load up their credit cards with US$5000 trips to Europe and trying to outdo their online friends by going some place more exotic, more beautiful, and more luxurious.

I know it because I did it! I pissed away every penny I earned in my 20's jetsetting to locations all over the world, always in search of a new place more inaccessible, and further away.
  • Do I regret it? No.
  • Do I recommend it to others? Not really.
Internet Status Symbols
There is another significant cultural change which has happened in the last 10 years which makes experiences much more of a status symbol than before: The world has shifted online. Our internet presence is now a big part of our identity, and you can't show off your stuff on the online. But you can show off your experiences, you can write stories about adventures, and other people will read them and comment on them. Before you took a few snapshots of your vacation and showed them to relatives visiting during the holidays. Now people go off and do something and they report back by showing off videos and photos, frequently slickly polished to show off even more, not just to friends and families but anybody who will care to view.

I read a lot of online forums and blogs about travel and a bunch of other hobbies. I see a lot of people who travel a lot, and always come back to report about their travels and how it was bigger and better than ever before (basically, because they spent more money). These people's financial situations are unknown to me, maybe they have much more money than me. Finances just aren't discussed, often the biggest players always complain they are broke. While I certainly could afford to do this (without dipping into savings, or going into debt), my thinking is to instead save that money so I can save for something bigger and better in the future. I figure pretty much all niches on the internet are similar, there are online forums and communities for every interest today.

Inspiring Online Envy
There are a lot of people online who seem to spend an awful lot of money basically trying to impress strangers on the internet with their experiences. Going off on a diving trip to Belize and coming back and posting a bunch of exquisitely produced HD videos about it so you can brag about it on the internet is the 21st century equivalent of pulling up to the stop light in your fancy Italian sports car thinking you are impressing strangers. I think a lot of people go off and experience a lot of things, not so much for their own enjoyment, but just so they can make other people on the internet envious. They pump up what they do just to impress other people, not to make themselves happy.

Honestly, I see a lot of people online who make me very jealous. They are jetsetting to Brazil or wherever every other weekend. I used to do this, it was what got me into debt. It feels great to come back and be able to write on the internet and be the envy of all your online friends, but now I know better. How am I supposed to respond when surrounded by such people? "Sounds fun! I could afford that too but instead of spending all that money myself, I'd rather sit at home and put that money in my 401(k), and maybe when I'll retire I'll be able to do that too." No, that doesn't work in any world except for a personal finance blog. Past experiences you may have don't give you any currency because they are so 2006, and are considered dated, plus you didn't capture it using all of the current equipment. The whole thing is frustrating. What is a frugal bachelor to do? Maybe I am just jealous?

The personal finance blogs are a unique sanctuary and the only place online that I know of where you become more of a legend by spending less and having less. And the only place where I am superstar (at least in my own mind). Honestly, I find this world very comforting. I have taken a lot of the personal finance blog wisdom for granted, but trying to impress others by outspending then is definitely very much alive and well in 2009; it has just shifted from the material world to the virtual one.

Sunday, August 16, 2009

GRS Auditions, Round 2

I thought this was a tough week for the Get Rich Slowly auditions. The first round was pretty good, but I was really disappointed this week.

Jason: Zzzzz …. Make some controversial statements about a hot-button issue. I'm not really buying it.

Neal: went from wearing a suit to blogging about his suit. Complete and total trainwreck. "I’m a bit of a people pleaser by nature." - duh, we already knew that. Stick to blogging about mutual funds.

Lynn: I fell asleep while reading this one.

A.J. Clark: Yawn...

April: I was looking forward to this one all week since I liked her first post. This was not as good as her first entry, but it wasn't bad. It was an intro article to something I already know about, so it wasn't very useful for me personally. But I think she has potential, and I still like her.

Baker: I like him, but I just didn't get this one at all.

Karawynn: wins "most improved entry of the week", definitely better than the first one, but still not really good enough.

I guess anybody can write one really good post, but not everybody can write one week after week, let alone every day. I now have a whole new appreciation for professional bloggers. Imagine the stress that would be involved in having to write one or more good blog entries every day, just to put food on the table. At some level the idea of outsourcing blogging as I suggested last week is totally unworkable, because anybody who is a good blogger can just go independent where they will make more money. They don't need to work for an owner who is taking profit from the top. This is probably why there is so much difficulty in finding a staff writer - the best candidates are already taken, and already own their own blogs.

The best post on GRS this week was JD's post about clotheslines. I hope he comes back and starts blogging full time again, because I miss his blog, and now I am having a lot of trouble envisioning a "post-JD" GRS. I have no prediction any longer what will happen next, or who will be selected.

Friday, August 14, 2009

My Next Plan

It has been pretty easy for me to get into a steady state. You know, the bills get paid, I never go to bed starving, and am pretty much interested and happy with activities during the day. I'm saving money. None of these are challenges for me any longer. I've had some fun this year. I went to Germany and the Netherlands, I went several times to Mexico, and also to Thailand and the Philippines, and if I don't cheap out I will go to South America next month. However, not enough excitement, and I'm feeling a little bit bored.

I need a bigger challenge. I am an introverted person. My biggest fear is that I will move somewhere and then spend the whole day inside because it's nice and comfy inside. This is not good for me, so I need to live in a place where it is 26°C, with a cool breeze, bright sunny blue sky, and minimal precipitation, all year long. One of the discomforts about travelling is not speaking the language (fluently or at all). In some place like Europe or South America where I do not particularly stick out and people just start talking to me, on the subway or wherever, and assume I am local. It makes me feel dumb. I don't even like being in Australia, I assume people there have a good impression of me until they hear my USA accent.

Which turns me to look at the Subcontinent. No place in the world is anything like India. I can not walk down the street in India without everybody knowing I am a foreigner. I am the center of attention everywhere I go, everybody treats me like a rock star, and makes me feel good. This is great. India is my favorite country on the planet.

Last weekend my alpha Philippines girlfriend frantically IM'ed me and told me she needed to talk to me right now, she was going to get married to a German guy. I believe, but am not sure, that USA guys are held in higher esteem internationally than German guys, by the ladies, (and really higher than any other nationality except Japanese). But I guess being in the Philippines is more appealing than being here. She thinks I left her because I didn't go back there. I think she left me because she wouldn't wait for me. I thought I was too smart, too cold-hearted, and too invincible to fall for the charms of a woman, but I was completely wrong, now I know I am dumb idiot, confirmed she just wanted to marry anyone. If I had gone there it would be me getting married to her.

I have made the decision that I want to move in with a woman. Not for long time, but maybe a month. Once the Shanghai Composite reaches 4500, maybe 5000 to be safe, I am going to move to South America (specifically Pereira, Colombia), rent a two-bedroom condo downtown, and then select a local lady who meets my specifications, and take about a month with her. I want to take her biking through the Andes. And then move to India to earn rupees for a year or so, while she tends to the condo. Then return to South America, and see if she is still waiting for me or has married another guy. I think India would be a good place for me to spend a year. It is not common for foreigners to fall in love with local women there, unlike the other countries which I approve of. This is my current thinking, but until Shanghai reaches those levels I will still be here. Given the recent performance it might be for a long while.